Responding to the first Power At Work Quarterly Labor Issues Survey, labor insiders and knowledgeable outsiders predicted that union membership would increase in 2024, with the largest percentage increase coming in the private sector rather than the state and local government or federal government sectors. Survey responses suggested that these labor insiders and knowledgeable outsiders do not believe unions’ membership growth in 2024 would be sufficient to increase union density in the United States. A plurality of respondents predicted the UAW would increase its membership at a faster rate than other unions. Respondents also expect that strike activity in 2024 will equal or exceed 2023’s elevated level of strike activity.
Who Responded?
The Power At Work Blog distributed its first Quarterly Labor Issues Survey in April 2024 to query trade union leaders, members, and staff (“insiders” or “labor insiders”), as well as labor academics, labor journalists, labor policy analysts and policymakers, and labor lawyers (“knowledgeable outsiders”) about important and current labor issues. Six-in-ten respondents are union leaders, union members, or union staff (see chart below). Another 36 percent closely observe the labor movement in their jobs as academics, journalists, government policymakers, worker advocates, attorneys, or think-tank leaders or analysts. To be clear, this is a survey of insiders and knowledgeable outsiders, not a poll distributed to a representative sample from across the labor community. It offers a valuable window into the labor community’s assessment of the state of worker power in the United States in 2024.
Respondents: Union Membership Will Grow in 2024
An impressive 70% of respondents predicted that union membership would grow in 2024. Almost all the remaining respondents --- 28% --- predicted that union membership would “remain about the same.” Simply, the labor community is feeling reasonably good about unions’ near-term future. Only 2% of respondents predicted a decrease. In essence, respondents believe union membership will continue the growth that began in 2022 and continued in 2023 after five years of membership losses.
The word that’s doing the most work in the preceding paragraph is “reasonably.” The labor community is feeling “reasonably good.” That’s not the same as feeling “great” or “fantastic.” How do we know? Respondents overwhelmingly expect only a moderate amount of union membership growth in 2024. Seventy-eight percent (78%) predicted that unions would add 200,000 or fewer new members and 3% predicted a membership decline. Forty-two percent (42%) predicted 100,000 or fewer new union members. Assuming economy-wide job creation continues at something like its current robust pace, unions would need to add roughly 250,000 to 300,000 new members in 2024 to sustain the current 10% union density rate. Only 6% of our respondents predicted that volume of union membership growth. The bottom line is, although we did not ask this question directly, a sizable majority of labor insiders and knowledgeable outsiders expect union density will decline in 2024.
We asked respondents to tell us in which sector union growth will occur in 2024. Almost two-thirds (64%) of respondents predicted that the private sector would see the fastest rate of union membership growth in 2024. Another 18% chose the state and local government sector. Only 2% chose the federal sector. If these predictions come to fruition, the reversal of fortune from 2023 would be dramatic. Last year, federal sector unions and union density in the federal sector grew, partly as a result of enthusiastic partnership with the Biden-Harris Administration. State and local government union membership declined in the face of a relentless union-busting assault by right-wing governors and vast vacancies in state and local government jobs. Private-sector union membership also grew in 2023, but not enough to increase private-sector union density. In essence, most of our respondents predict accelerated union membership growth in the private sector that will outpace federal-sector union growth, which should continue apace.
More respondents chose the UAW to lead the way in private-sector union membership growth in 2024 than any other union. These predictions were almost certainly influenced by news of the UAW’s historic election victory at Volkswagen’s Chattanooga, Tennessee plant. The news broke while our survey was in the field. The UAW’s recent public commitment to invest $40 million through 2026 to organize non-union auto and electric-vehicle battery plants in the United States probably also played a role.
As Chris Bohner detailed in his recent post on the Power At Work Blog, the UAW lost members in 2023 and from 2010 to 2023. The fastest growing union in 2023 was the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest federal-sector union. On the other hand, Chris described the UAW’s dramatic increase in spending and how that might produce meaningful membership gains. SEIU got the second largest number of mentions as the union most likely to boast the largest union membership growth rate, with the IBEW and UFCW placing third and fourth. SEIU launched its California Fast Food Workers Union just a few weeks before this survey was distributed, so that news may have influenced our respondents, as well.
Respondents: Number of Strikes in 2024 Will Remain the Same as 2023
Almost one-half of respondents (48%) predicted that the number of strikes in 2024 would be the same as the number in 2023. Another 43% predicted that the number of strikes would increase. Only 10% of respondents predicted a decline. The overwhelming weight of these responses suggests that labor insiders and knowledgeable outsiders are convinced that workers remain activated and ready to confront their employers. As we discussed in great detail with Johnnie Kallas, Director of the Labor Action Tracker, 2023 witnessed an increase in the number of strikes in the U.S. and a whopping increase in the number of workers on strike and the number of work days missed due to strikes.
It is, well, striking that labor insiders and knowledgeable outsiders expect 2023’s elevated level of strike activity to continue in 2024. Last year, sizable unions --- the UAW, SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild of America --- went out on long strikes. The Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions, a large coalition of unions, also struck, although for a shorter period. This year, the largest unions in collective bargaining are likely to be the International Association of Machinists at Boeing, the International Longshoremen’s Association at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, and the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) and the Hollywood studios. Strikes are certainly possible in all three of those negotiations. The American Postal Workers Union is even larger and it will negotiate with the U.S Postal Service during 2024, but postal employees are legally barred from striking. So, we may see fewer large strikes in 2024, which may reduce the total number of strikers, although we asked about the number of strikes. In addition, Starbucks Workers United is now negotiating with Starbucks. If those warring parties can arrive at a collective bargaining agreement, they could reduce or eliminate a leading source of smaller, shorter strikes. On the other hand, worker activism is not limited to name-brand companies and large unions. Workers are currently striking all over the United States. So, our respondents’ prediction of continued high numbers of strikes, or an increase in the number of strikes, is entirely plausible.
This conclusion may be reinforced by the diversity of answers we received in response to an open-ended question: “Putting aside strikes that had already begun by the time you are reading this question, which collective bargaining relationship do you believe is most likely to result in a strike in 2024?” Answers ranged widely from the IAM and Boeing to the IATSE negotiations with the Hollywood movie studios to collective bargaining relationships that do not yet exist, like the UAW and Tesla. If strike activity is as broad and diverse as our respondents’ answers, then sustaining or increasing the number of strikes in 2024 seems even more likely.
Who are the Survey’s Respondents?
The goal of the Power At Work Quarterly Labor Issues Survey is to gain the perspectives of labor insiders and knowledgeable outsiders on important questions relating to the state of the labor movement. We succeeded better than we hoped in attracting the kinds of respondents we wanted. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of respondents are union members or staff. Another 23% identified themselves as a “union leader.” In sum, more than half of the people responding to the survey are leading, active in, or working for unions. Another 3% identified themselves as “worker advocates.” Befitting a survey produced by an academic institution, 10% of our respondents are teachers/scholars/academics “at any level” of education (i.e., early childhood, K-12, or higher education). Another 8% of respondents self-identify as leading or working for a think tank. Five percent are journalists. Another 5% are attorneys.
Respondents live and work in all parts of the country. The Northeast (41%) and West (31%) may have been overrepresented. The Midwest (10%), South (11%), and Southwest (5%) may have been underrepresented. In future surveys, we will endeavor to increase representation from those regions of the country. It will be interesting to assess how any change in this geographic distribution affects the answers we receive.
In future surveys, we may ask for more demographic or occupational information. We did not consider those data relevant to any of the responses we solicited in this survey. That may change. Nonetheless, keeping our survey short --- requiring 10 minutes of time, at most --- is a top priority. Our respondents have important jobs. We want to respect that by not asking for a large investment of time and attention.
Conclusion
The first Power At Work Quarterly Labor Issues Survey discloses a labor community that is optimistic, but in a measured way. There is little doubt from these responses and conversations in which I have engaged with national union leaders that most unions have a growth mindset in 2024. Two union leaders with whom I spoke expect their organizations to grow to more than one million members --- one in the next four years and the other over ten years. For one of these unions, reaching that milestone membership number would represent a near doubling of the union’s size. Another union president told me that his organization had exceeded all its organizing goals.
Intriguingly, our respondents’ expectations seem to be more conservative. The labor community may want clear evidence that robust growth is possible before ratcheting up their optimism. Union density continued to slip in 2023 despite two years of membership growth, so their caution may be warranted. Nonetheless, respondents widely agreed that worker activism is alive and well, and workers are ready to walk a picket line when necessary. Successful strikes tend to breed more strikes. The immense bargaining tables victories won by unions that engaged in or threatened strikes in 2023 must have influenced our respondents. Obviously, success also breeds optimism, as it should.
This is our first Quarterly Labor Issues Survey. We are planning more. So, keep an eye out this summer for the Q3 2024 edition of the Power At Work Quarterly Labor Issues Survey. Or better yet, subscribe to the Power At Work Blog so you will know when the survey is coming. And, perhaps, you will be invited to participate too.
