On January 19th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Union Members – 2022 survey results. The headline number in that report --- the union density rate --- will become an important yardstick for measuring the American labor movement’s ability to reverse its long-term decline in economic and political power. In an earlier post, I argued that the success of 2022’s worker organizing will not be fully understood until deep into 2023. Nonetheless, 2022’s union density rate will launch a lot of prognostications, pronouncements, and a few too many premature eulogies.
The goal of this post is to help to put the BLS union members survey’s results into perspective before it is publicly released.
BLS calculates union density as follows. The total number of U.S. union members is the numerator: the top of the fraction. In 2021 , there were 14.012 million union members. Another 1.79 million workers were represented by unions, but not members, and so are not included. The denominator is all U.S. employees, both public and private sector, which totaled 136.393 million in 2021 (BLS excludes self-employed workers from this count because they cannot join or organize unions). Divide the denominator into the numerator and the resulting percentage is the union density rate --- 10.3% in 2021 --- down from 10.8% in 2020.
Regardless, there is no definition of “good outcome” for the labor movement that includes fewer total union members.
The union density rate declined in 2021 for two reasons. First, the total number of union members fell by 241,000. Roughly 80% of that decline occurred in the public sector. Public-sector employment was essentially flat both overall and in each of the federal, state, and local government sectors, so the loss of union members cannot be blamed on large-scale layoffs or attrition. More likely, it was the continuing erosive effects of state laws weakening public-sector unions, like Iowa’s rule requiring every incumbent local union to win frequent elections to remain certified to represent its members. Regardless, there is no definition of “good outcome” for the labor movement that includes fewer total union members. If there is another absolute decline in union members in 2022, especially given a substantial increase in worker organizing, then it would be fair to declare 2022 a problematic year for unions.
Second, 2021’s union density rate also declined because the total number of employees in the U.S. increased by 4.22 million as the COVID-19 pandemic was brought under control and laid off non-union employees returned to work. During the pandemic, union workers were more likely to keep their jobs, so the union density rate grew , even though the total number of union members fell. To maintain 2020’s 10.8% union density rate in 2021, unions not only could not lose members, but would have had to add 455,000 employees to their membership ranks. The last increase of that approximate size, and the only one over the last 20 years, occurred in 2008 when unions increased their ranks by 428,000 members.
That’s where union density's tough math for 2022 becomes apparent. Total employment grew about 2% in 2022 (including the self-employed). In order to sustain 2021’s union density rate of 10.3%, unions would need 281,000 net additional members to keep up with the growth in employment. Unions grew by almost that much in 2005, 2015 and 2017, and by more in 2007 and 2008 . So, 281,000 is not an inconceivable result. But then again, that’s the target only if the goal is to stand still. If the goal is increased union density, then the number of new members would have to be meaningfully higher.
Undeniably, unions need to increase density substantially to build power, and that will require organizing hundreds of thousands or millions of workers each year over an extended period of time.
We are left with the question, what would constitute “success” for the labor movement when the BLS Union Members – 2022 survey is released? 281,000 union members and no change in the union density rate? More new members and an increase in the union density rate? My answer is more basic: growth. Any growth. I admit this definition lacks ambition and is not sustainable over the long-term. Undeniably, unions need to increase density substantially to build power, and that will require organizing hundreds of thousands or millions of workers each year over an extended period of time. But for one year --- 2022 --- unions need to prove they can translate a 71% favorable rating into membership. Unions have not seen an increase in their numbers since 2017. They need to reverse their slide.
Every journey begins with a first step. Let’s hope 2022 was the labor movement’s first step toward a better, bigger future.
