It may come as little surprise to most Power At Work readers that, over the last two and a half years, workers have petitioned for and secured more union representation elections administered by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) than they did during 2020 and 2021 – years in which much of the country was focused on surviving the COVID-19 pandemic and the accompanying economic downturn.
The NLRB reported that it administered 1,400 union representation elections in 2022, which was a 30% increase over the 980 held in 2021. The number of these elections rose again in 2023 to 1,482, and was at 1,474 through July 2024, with two months remaining in the fiscal year.
The surprise may be the rate at which unions are winning elections.
In 2023, workers voted for union representation in 71% of NLRB elections. That was the highest “win rate” since 2011. The win rate had steadily declined since 2016, but 2022 brought a massive increase to 70% from 54% in 2021. The 2021 win rate was the lowest since the data was first published in 2011.
That notable increase from 2021 to 2022 could be attributed to a number of causes. One possible explanation is that the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath left many workers angry and frustrated towards their employers about how the employers handled that crisis situation. Many workers were forced to work in unsafe circumstances during the pandemic without the requisite personal protective equipment or other protections in their workplace. This could have led to many of the efforts by workers to organize and thereby ensure themselves better protections in their workplace and a bigger voice in safety and health decisions. Another possibility is that there may have been a substantial backlog of petitions unions could have filed for NLRB elections, but unions were more selective with respect to their earliest filings after the end of the pandemic to ensure they would win at a higher rate.
The number of NLRB union representation elections declined steadily from 2015 through 2020. After its peak of 1,687 elections in 2015, the number declined every year through 2020, reaching 945 that year. After rising slightly to 980 elections in 2021, the increase in 2022 to 1,400 elections was the largest jump since these data were first published. That number rose again to 1,482 in 2023.
There are a number of possible explanations for this pattern. The COVID-19 pandemic is again a likely primary reason. It is possible that workers and unions may have held off filing petitions for elections with the NLRB during the pandemic, which would have caused a backlog that was worked through as the pandemic’s effects started to wane. It is also possible that workers and unions held off filing petitions during the Trump Administration when the NLRB was viewed as hostile to organizing. Of course, 2021 was the first year that the NLRB was under the control of the Biden Administration’s appointees.
The significant increase in elections in 2022 and 2023 resulted in an increase in both the total number of votes for and the total number of votes against unionizing in the workplace increasing as well. Yet, the rate at which the votes for these two choices increased was very different. During that two year stretch, there was a 108.4% increase in votes for unions (from 24,112 in 2021 to 50,249 in 2023), while the increase in votes against unions was just 26% (from 16,470 in 2021 to 20,750 in 2023). Stated another way, the ratio of yes votes to no votes on the question of union representation in 2021 was 1.46 to 1. The ratio of yes votes to no votes in 2023 rose to 2.42 to 1. That’s an astonishing and noteworthy improvement in outcomes for the “Union Yes” side.
By comparing the two years in which the most NLRB elections were held since 2011 — 2015 and 2023 — a sharp difference can be seen. In 2015, 50,809 workers voted for unionization, compared to the very similar 50,249 votes for union representation in 2023. Yet, 2015 saw 34,099 workers vote against union representation, compared to just 20,750 in 2023. This shows that while 2023 saw its “Union Yes” votes tally nearly reach its 2015 high mark, the number of votes against union representation came nowhere close to its comparison number in 2015. Simply, fewer workers were opposed to union representation. As a result, 2023 marked the largest gap between the number of workers who voted for and against union representation since the NLRB first reported these data in 2011, and by a significant margin.
The 70.77% of votes for union representation in 2023 was the highest since the NLRB started reporting these data in 2011. In fiscal year 2024 through July, the pro-union voting percentage sits at 70.42%. Between 2011 and 2022, the highest rate reached was 63.2%, which was achieved in 2022 and 2020.
This is all to say that unions over the last two and a half years are not just winning elections at a higher rate. They are winning elections emphatically. They are also winning over workers in a volume that the U.S. has not seen in quite some time. Although 22 months may not provide enough data to establish a clear and lasting trend line so that we can declare a new era of “Union Yes,” there is no question that these data suggest great enthusiasm among workers for union representation.
Disaggregating these data by region offers additional interesting insights into unions’ increasingly winning ways. The northeast region of the country, which is widely considered one of the more pro-union regions, has actually not seen the most significant increase in elections held since 2020. It saw increases in 2021 and 2022, but had an absolute decline in 2023.
From 2008 through around 2017, the northeast hosted significantly more union representation elections than the midwest and west regions which, in turn, experienced significantly more than the southeast and southwest. Over the last six years, the gap between the northeast and the midwest and west has closed. In fact, in 2023, for the first time since this data was reported, the northeast fell from its position as the region with the most union elections during that year. The west region of the country surpassed it, with the midwest just four elections shy of the northeast.
This speaks to the fact that unions and their organizers are not simply targeting areas of the country where they historically have been the most successful. They are expanding their reach. Even in the southeast and southwest, the last few years have seen an increase in organizing. In the southeast, for example, the Union of Southern Service Workers has grown by focusing on organizing low wage workers and workers of color. In the case of the southwest, 2023 brought the most union elections since the NLRB began publishing this data. Union organizers are diving into battles in states that are not known to be historically pro-union – and they are winning there.
Organizers are not simply targeting larger companies in order to grow these statistics. While the year-to-year numbers of employees in bargaining units in which elections have been held are somewhat inconsistent, the average has remained between 50 and 70 employees. That did not change in 2022 or 2023 despite a significant jump in 2023.
So far in 2024, the average union election has involved a unit of 72 employees. In 2023, the average union election involved a unit of 68 employees. Those averages are higher than the four years before, but not an outlier in regard to the last fifteen years. The average number of employees involved in union representation elections from 2011 through 2018 was 65. This means that while organizers are targeting slightly larger units of employees, the change has not been drastic.
There are many different possible explanations for unions' increased success over the last few years. One could point to a changing political landscape with a president who proclaims himself the most pro-union in history. Younger generations of workers are more open to unionization. Organizers may have better strategies and unions may be targeting units more effectively. Perhaps most likely, there has been a noted increase in worker activism across the United States and perhaps a rising awareness that workers need unions to have a voice in their future.
The truth is that all of those reasons have likely played a role. There is no one singular cause of increased union election victories. But there is a concrete result, and that is greater worker power in the United States.
