Alicia Modestino, Associate Professor at Northeastern University, hosts this month's Workers by the Numbers Blogcast. Listen to her in conversation with Aaron Sojourner, Senior Researcher at the W.E. Upjohn Institute, and Teresa Ghilarducci, Professor of Economics and Policy Analysis at the New School, as they discuss the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs, wages, and unemployment report for October 2023. This conversation was aired live on the homepage of the blog at 8:45 AM ET on Friday, November 3 — just 15 minutes after the release of the report.
Listen to the podcast version on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and Google Podcasts.
The Panel's Analysis: Solid job growth + continued wage gains = Good for worker power
The U.S. economy created 150,000 jobs new #jobs in October, below economists' expectations of 170,000 and well below the average hot labor market growth of 258,000 per month. But labor force participation held steady at 62.7% and the employment to population ratio was little changed at 60.2% along with a historically low #unemployment rate of 3.9%. So it looks like we have a "warm and cozy" jobs report rather than the "on fire" labor market we saw with last month's whopping 297,000 jobs created (revised down from 336,000).
Job gains occurred primarily in the #healthcare, #government and social assistance sectors while job losses occurred primarily in #manufacuring due to ongoing strike activity. Speaking of which, the #uaw reached a tentative agreement with the big three automakers, wrestling #gm to the table with concessions of a 33% increase in wages for incumbent workers which UAW leader Shawn Fain characterized as "squeezing every last dime out of General Motors." In addition, the UAW got electric battery workers and other groups included in the contract while also "slamming the door on having a permanent underclass" of temp workers according to Shawn Fain.
Overall, #wages increased by 7 cents in October for an annual rate of 4.1% which is a continued gradual slowdown of the last few months with annual rates of 4.2% in September and 4.3% in August. Wage growth still compares favorably to #inflation with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing only a 3.7% annualized gain in September which was the same as August's. This means that workers are still seeing their paychecks rise slightly faster than inflation. However, more than half of the increase in the CPI was due to shelter which suggests that inflation is getting baked into #rents for the longer term. Plus #gasoline prices also increased last month which always a glaring pain point for consumers.
Finally, U.S. job #openings increased by 56,000 in September to 9.5 million with strong demand in the accommodation and food services industry but declines in federal government and the information industry. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), #layoffs dropped to a nine month low and #quitting was down slightly to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that both firms and workers are "holding tight" for now. Interestingly, all of the increase in job postings was due to #smallbusiness activity - in contrast firms of 250 workers or more showed declines in job openings, perhaps because they have decided to hoard workers rather than suffer additional turnover. As of September there were 1.5 job openings for every unemployed person, still way above the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2.
Our Panel:
Alicia Modestino is an Associate Professor at Northeastern University’s School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs and the Department of Economics, as well as the Research Director of the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy. She previously served as Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Aaron Sojourner is a labor economist and senior researcher at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment research. He has served as a Senior Economist for labor at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors.
Teresa Ghilarducci is a labor economist and nationally-recognized expert in retirement security. She is the Bernard L. and Irene Schwartz professor of economics at The New School for Social Research and the Director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis and The New School’s Retirement Equity Lab.
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