Even before we knew the size of the Democrats’ majority in the U.S. Senate, the 2022 midterm elections bucked a lot of expectations and launched an era of divided government. Now that the dust has settled, what do the results mean for workers and their unions?
Worker and union issues did not dominate the 2022 election. President Biden’s economic policies, including saving Social Security and Medicare, were important. Almost all Democrats who supported them were re-elected despite voters’ concerns about inflation and gas prices. This election’s results were driven largely by the Supreme Court annulling women’s right to control their reproductive health, our democracy’s future, and candidate quality. That’s certainly not because unions were disengaged. To the contrary, unions and working class voters across the country were critical to Democrats’ history-defying success.
Even though the campaign did not shape a clear public policy agenda for workers and unions, we know enough to offer a preliminary answer to the question, what can workers and unions expect from their government over the next two years?
1. President Biden’s bottom-up, middle-out economic policies will continue.
So, low unemployment empowering workers to demand higher wages and better jobs should continue. The Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates threatens workers’ jobs more than Republican attacks on the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats won partly because they campaigned on these legislative accomplishments. They will defend them.
2. Further pro-worker legislation at the federal level is unlikely.
With a slim majority, House Republicans’ leaders will not allow legislation opposed by businesses to reach the House floor. Labor issues have long been contentious and hyperpartisan. Hope of compromise on labor issues in a divided government is either faint or dead. Senate Democrats and President Biden will block any anti-union House-passed legislation. So, the best bet would be legislative inaction.
3. States could drive pro-worker lawmaking.
Democrats flipped three governorships --- Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona. Incumbent Democratic governors were re-elected or replaced with Democrats, except in Nevada. Thus, progress is possible on higher minimum wages, expanded childcare and paid leave, state retirement plans, and re-defining which workers are classified as “employees” protected by labor and employment laws. To start, Michigan will repeal its right-to-work law. Action is most likely where Democrats control both the Governor’s office and legislature (add Michigan and Minnesota); boast legislative supermajorities (e.g., Vermont); or have a Governor who looks in the mirror and sees a future president (e.g., California, Illinois).
4. The Biden Administration will turn to executive actions and regulations.
For example, U.S. Department of Labor regulations to expand overtime and protect employees’ retirement savings are more likely today. Efforts to eliminate anti-competitive employer practices, like non-compete agreements, are highly likely. The President’s Task Force on Worker Organizing implementation efforts will continue. Efforts across the Cabinet departments to implement the infrastructure law, the Inflation Reducation Act, and the CHIPS Act will emphasize creating good union jobs with prevailing wages with diverse and inclusive workers benefitting.